Demand Calculator
How many ads do you actually need?
Your monthly spend target drives your production volume. Move the slider. See the math. Volume isn't a preference — it's a number.
Total monthly media budget across paid channels (Meta, Google, TikTok, etc.).
Rough count of ads your team launches each month. Leave blank to skip the gap analysis.
to launch monthly at industry-standard activation rates
Won't activate
81
79.0% of launched
Will activate
21
21.0% activation rate
Expected outliers
4
3.5% outlier rate
Probability of finding k outliers this month
Binomial distribution over 102 launched ads at a 3.5% outlier rate. Expected value: 3.6 outliers/month.
The math is working in your favor. At $200,000/month, you need 102 ads launching monthly. At a 21.0% activation rate, 21 will receive meaningful spend. Expected 4 outliers. You're not betting on one lucky ad — you're running a discovery engine.
Want to close the gap?
Track ($5K/mo) gives you the system to hit this volume with measurement and intelligence. Your team executes — Marshal advises. The first step is a conversation.
21.0%
Activation rate — launched ads reaching meaningful spend
3.5%
Outlier rate — activated ads becoming outsized winners
$9,360
Avg monthly spend per activated ad
Aggregate data across DTC ad accounts. Your actual rates may differ. The free audit measures yours →